原创力文档analysis of cdc social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city使用一个基于主体的仿真分析中心的社会控制措施流行性感冒的一个城市.pdfVIP
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analysis of cdc social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city使用一个基于主体的仿真分析中心的社会控制措施流行性感冒的一个城市
Yang et al. BMC Infectious Diseases 2011, 11:199
/1471-2334/11/199
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access
Analysis of CDC social control measures using an
agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic
in a city
Yong Yang1*, Peter M Atkinson2 and Dick Ettema3
Abstract
Background: The transmission of infectious disease amongst the human population is a complex process which
requires advanced, often individual-based, models to capture the space-time details observed in reality.
Methods: An Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (ISTAM) was applied to simulate the effectiveness of
non-pharmaceutical control measures including: (1) refraining from social activities, (2) school closure and (3)
household quarantine, for a hypothetical influenza outbreak in an urban area.
Results: Amongst the set of control measures tested, refraining from social activities with various compliance levels
was relatively ineffective. Household quarantine was very effective, especially for the peak number of cases and
total number of cases, with large differences between compliance levels. Household quarantine resulted in a
decrease in the peak number of cases from more than 300 to around 158 for a 100% compliance level, a decrease
of about 48.7%. The delay in the outbreak peak was about 3 to 17 days. The total number of cases decreased to a
range of 3635-5403, that is, 63.7%-94.7% of the baseline value.
When coupling control measures, household quarantine together with school closure was the most effective
strategy. The resulting space-time distribution of infection in different classes of activity bundles (AB) suggests that
the epidemic outbreak is strengthened amongst children and then spread to adults. By sensitivity analysis, this
study demonstrated that earlier implementation of control measures leads to greater efficacy. Also, for infe
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