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looking for a silver lining the possible positives of declining energy return on investment (eroi)寻找一线希望的积极的能源投资回报率下降(eroi)
Sustainability 2011, 3, 2071-2079; doi:10.3390/su3112071
OPEN ACCESS
sustainability
ISSN 2071-1050
/journal/sustainability
Article
Looking for a Silver Lining: The Possible Positives of
Declining Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
Jack P. Manno
SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA;
E-Mail: jpmanno@; Tel.: +1-315-470-6816; Fax: +1-315-470-6915
Received: 3 February 2011; in revised form: 28 April 2011 / Accepted: 13 June 2011 /
Published: 26 October 2011
Abstract: Declining energy return on investment (EROI) of a society’s available energy
sources can lead to both crisis and opportunity for positive social change. The implications
of declining EROI for human wellbeing are complex and open to interpretation. There are
many reasons why frugal living and an energy diet could be beneficial. A measure of
wellbeing or welfare gained per unit of energy expended (WROEI) is proposed. A threshold
is hypothesized for the relation between energy consumption and wellbeing. The paper
offers a biophysical-based social science explanation for both the negative and positive
possible implications of declining EROI. Two sets of future scenarios based on environmental
and economic trends are described. Six types of social change activism are considered
essential if the positives of declining EROI are to balance or exceed the negatives.
Keywords: energy; EROI; human wellbeing; thresholds; degrowth; scenarios; soc
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