斯里兰卡贸易政策审议秘书处报告摘要译文.docVIP

SUMMARY 概述 1. Sri Lanka, a middle-income economy, has performed relatively well since its last review in 2010. Its economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and following the resolution of the internal conflict, with an average annual growth rate in real GDP of 6% during the review period. Growth was mainly driven by the construction, wholesale and retail trade, and financial services sectors. The main risks to growth sustainability and development result from the weak fiscal position – the fiscal deficit increased from 6.5% of GDP in 2011 to 7.5% in 2015, well above the government target of 4.4%; the declining revenue collection – revenue collection as a proportion of GDP declined to around 13% in 2015; and the resulting public debt overhang. The Governments reform agenda for the next three years plans to address these risks by introducing fundamental changes to tax policy and administration, encouraging stronger revenue performance, and reforming state-owned enterprises (SOEs). With inflation declining from 7.5% in 2012 to less than 1% in 2015, the Central Bank pursued an accommodative monetary policy from 2012, in part to spur economic growth, however, as credit and monetary aggregates expanded, the Central Bank commenced tightening monetary policy gradually towards the end of 2015. Economic activity is dominated by the services sector, which accounts for 60% of GDP, followed by manufacturing at 20%, and agriculture at 9% of GDP. 1. 斯里兰卡是一个中等收入国家，自2010年上次审议以来，一直表现良好。在全球经济危机余波和国内冲突结束之后，其经济表现出较强的恢复力，审议期间实际GDP的平均年增长率达到6%。其经济增长主要是由建筑、批发和零售贸易、金融服务等行业带动的。斯里兰卡增长可持续性和发展的主要风险在于其疲软的财政状况：其财政赤字从2011年占GDP的6.5%增长到2015年占GDP的7.5%，远远高于4.4%的政府目标。税款收入不断减少 – 2015年，税款收入在GDP中的占比下降至约13%，由此导致公共债务问题突出。今后三年政府的改革日程是：通过税收政策和管理的根本改变、增加税收效益、实施国有企业（SOE）改革来化解这些风险。自2012年中央银行执行融通性货币政策以来，通货膨胀率从2012年的7.5%下降至2015年的1%以下，这在一定程度上刺激了经济的增长。然而，由于信用和货币总量的膨胀，2015年底中央银行开始逐步收紧货币政策。经济活动以服务业为主导，它对GDP的贡献率为60%，其次为制造业和农业，对GDP的贡献分别为20%和9%。 2. Trade played an important, albeit