stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel随机种群动态的山区陆生松鼠.pdfVIP

Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground- Dwelling Squirrel 1,2 1¤ 3 1 Jeffrey A. Hostetler , Eva Kneip , Dirk H. Van Vuren , Madan K. Oli * 1 Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America, 2 Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, Washington, D.C., United States of America, 3 Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America Abstract Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate l was 0.94 6SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45 60.09 in 2006 to 1.50 60.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (l,1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate ls was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on ls included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in l. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and