全球化背景下的国粮食供求变化趋势_陆文聪.pdf

41 1 ( ) Vol. 41, No. 1 2011 1 Journal of Zhejiang University(Humanities andSocial Sciences) Jan. 2011 : DOI: 10.3785/ j. issn. 1008942X. 2010. 11. 111 全球化背景下的中国粮食供求变化趋势 陆文聪 祁慧博 李元龙 ( , 310029) [ ] , , , ,; , ; , , ,; , [] ; ; ; The Tendency of hinas Grain Supply and Demand under Globalization Lu Wencong Qi Huibo Li Yuanlong ( T he Center f or A g ricult ur al and R ur al D ev elop ment, Zhej iang Univ er sity , H ang z hou 310029, China Abstract: Chinas grain supplydemand variation affects its domestic grain security, and obviously interacts ith the orld food market. Given the population, economy and resources in the future, it is necessary to take some ne scenarios into account to underline the tendency of Chinas grain supply and demand under globalization.The results sho that: the appreciation of RMB stimulates global grain production and trade, hile it has some negative impacts on Chinas corn and beans; global biofuel development idens the gap bet een global grain supply and demand, and the change of orld grain pattern may make a shift on Chinas international grain resources; the effect of Chinas grain subsidies on grain production increase is significant in the long run, but the acute structure imbalance continues in grain market.It is essential to improve grain market mechanism, adjust domestic grain supplydemand structure, and exploit international grain market to attain Chinese grain equilibrium. Key words: globalization; China; grain supply and demand; tendency [ ] 2010 11 11 [ ] http:/ / .journals. zju. edu. cn/ soc [ ] [ ] ( ; ( 05JJDZH247) [ ] 1. , , , , ; 2. , , , ; 3. , , , 6