现行的人民币汇率制度可持续性.ppt

Page 701/East Asia: Success Crisis The East Asia Economic Miracle South Korea: a series of economic reform; emphasize exports In the 1960s, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore In the 1970s—1980s, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and China Different Patterns: Common: industrial policy + business-government cooperation South Korea: government role in allocation of capital between industries; Hong Kong Taiwan: no clear industrial policy; Singapore (Taiwan): rely on the local subsidiaries of multinational firms; Behind the high-growth: high rates of saving and investment; (they saved 34% of GDP) rapidly improving educational levels among the work force; free trade; a high degree of openness to and integration with world market; stable macroeconomic environment low inflation; Asian Weakness Productivity. Output growth was simply supported by the rapid growth of inputs (labor, capital); rapid shift of workers from agriculture; capital accumulation→diminish returns; Banking regulation. Banks were not subject to effective government supervision; eased private access to capital inflows; moral hazard in lending; current account in deficit; Investment out of domestic saving Legal framework. poor in corporate governance; the lack of a good legal framework for dealing with companies in trouble; bankruptcy law was weak; The Asian Financial Crisis Summary of the crisis 1997 highly rely on trade; domestic banks and companies had large debts denominated in dollars; dilemma in using the interest rate to defend their currencies; all took the medicines prescribed by IMF except for Malaysia; Skip over 707 Can currency board make fixed exchange rates credible? A major advantage of the currency board system: the central bank can never run out of foreign exchange reserves in the face of a speculative attack on exchange rate. central bank=vending machine? The currency board is prohibited by law from acquiring and domestic assets, so all the currency it issues automati