用户友好型气候影响与风险评价情景-中国气候变化信息网.PPT

Roger Street, 技术指导 中国适应气候变化项目风险评估研讨会 Production of user-friendly climate scenarios for impact and risk assessments 用户友好型气候影响与风险评估情景  Wednesday, 03rd March 2010 2010年3月3日星期三 Beijing, China 中国北京 Towards “User-friendly” Scenarios走近用户友好情景 Understanding what is and will be available – earlier presentations 了解现在及将来可用信息—之前介绍 Understanding what is needed and can be delivered – this presentation 了解所需与可供—本次介绍 Requirement for informed engagement involving the providers and the users of the climate scenarios 要求供应商与气候情景用户保持知情参与 Recognition that what is needed is information to inform the assessments 认识到需要为评估提供信息 Temporal (30-year, baseline) and spatial (what resolution?) scales 时间（30-年，基点）与空间（分辨率）范围 Averaging periods (monthly, seasonal, other)? 平均周期（月、季、其他）？ Variables?变量？ Recognition that it is also about accessibility (presentation) and utility (guidance) Predict, Optimise and Relax预测、优化与放松 Focus is on the climate and projected change 聚焦气候与预期变化 Often assumes that we are adapted to “today” 时常假定我们是在适应“今天” Follows a linear model:遵循线性模式气候预测 Focus is on getting the climate “right” – uncertainty remains a barrier to decision making “彻底明白”气候—不确定因素会对决策构成障碍 Tendency for decision and policy makers to hold off awaiting better climate information and there is a need to start over each time there is new projections 决策者与政策制定者有这样一种倾向，他们会延时决策以等待更佳的气候信息，因此，每当有新的预期出现，就要从头开始。 Climate Projections气候预期 Impacts影响 Adaptation适应 Assess, Adjust and Review评估、调整与回顾 Focus is on understanding the climate (and other) risks 焦点在于认识气候（及其他）风险 Assumes that “today” may need some further adaptation (benefits the day job) 假定“今天”就可能需要更进一步的适应 （有益于当前工作） Follows a recursive model 遵循递归模式 1.确定问题和目标 2.确立决策标准 3. 评估风险 4.识别可选方案 5. 评估可选方案 6.决策 7.实施决策 8.监控 Uncertainty and risk are made explicit and addressed and can be communicated明确不确定因素与风险，确保其得到相应关注并相互传达 Allows for “adjustments” as benefits and changes in risk are realised随着风险收益的实现与变化的发生，要允许出现“调整” Different information needed需要获取多种信息 Prior to usi