国家电网运营诊断关键技术研究与实证分析.pdfVIP

2016 2016, Vol. 37, No. 01 37 01 COMPUTER ENGINEERING SOFTWARE IT 国家电网运营诊断关键技术研究与实证分析 1 1 2 3 李沛然 ，苏卫东 ，段振华 ，张相文 1. 817000 2. 810000 3. 100000 摘 要：本文介绍了公司运营诊断中的关键技术与分析方法，包括数据调整方法、实证建模方法、结构性分析技 术、趋势分析与预测技术、预警分析技术。然后，针对国家电网构造其运营诊断系统，以实际运营数据为基础构建实 证模型进行分析研究，评估企业运行绩效，帮助企业发现运营中存在的问题，为企业实时监控并了解市场或其他外在 因素对企业战略目标执行可能产生的各种影响提供依据。 关键词：运营诊断；实证建模；时间序列；预测预警 中图分类号: C939 文献标识码: A DOI ：10.3969/j.issn.1003-6970.2016.01.029 本文著录格式：李沛然，苏卫东，段振华等. 国家电网运营诊断关键技术研究与实证分析[J].软件，2016 ，37 （01）：127-131 Key Technologies and Empirical Analysis in the Operation Diagnosis of State Grid 1 1 2 3 LI Pei-ran SU Wei-dong DUAN Zhen-hua ZHANG Xiang-wen 1.Haixi power company of State GridHaixi Qinghai 817000China2.Qinghai power company of State GridXining Qinghai 810000China 3.Beijing China Power Information Technology Co.Ltd Beijing 100000China AbstractThis paper introduces the key technologies in the companys operations and diagnostic analysis methods including data adjustment methodempirical modelingstructural analysistrend analysis and forecasting techniques and early warning analysis techniques.Thenempirical models is built based on the operational data of State Gridthe performance of the company was assessed to help find the problems in operations.This study provides the basis for the enterprise to monitor and understand the influence of the market or other external factors on the implementation of the enterprise strategic objectives. Key wordsOperations diagnosis Empirical analysis Time series Forecast and early warning 0 引言 “”