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2004 10月投资策略报告
2004 10 月份
投资策略报告
金元证券研究所
2004 年9 月30 日
1 金元证券研究
2004 10月投资策略报告
目 录
1、证券市场运行环境 ·················································3
1.1 宏观经济运行情况 ·········································3
1.2 下半年经济指标预测·······································8
1.3 证券市场环境评价 ········································11
1.4 影响市场的政策环境因素分析 ·······························12
2、重点行业研究 ····················································15
2.1 煤炭行业 ···············································15
2.2 交通运输业·············································20
2.3 机场航空业·············································25
2.4 有色金属行业 ···········································28
2.5 钢铁行业 ···············································30
3、证券市场走势 ····················································33
3.1 A 股市场走势·············································33
4、投资策略························································36
4.1 A 股投资策略·············································36
2 金元证券研究
2004 10月投资策略报告
1.证券市场环境评价
1.1 宏观经济运行情况
固定资产完成情况（单位：亿元）
经历了 7 年月 完成额 同比％
月份31.5％的强
Dec-03 8025.39 17.6
烈反弹后，8 月
Jan-04
份的固定资产投
Feb-04 3287.03 53
资又回落到了
Mar-04 3771.45 43.5
26.3 ％。这说明
Apr-04 398
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