(系统动力学)lecture2structureandbehaviorofdynamicsystems.pptVIP

* 在S形增长中，如果承载能力不是固定，而是被过度消耗而降低，那么系统就会过度调整并崩溃。 Overshoot and Collapse过度调整并崩溃 * Time delays in the negative loops lead to the possibility that the state of the system will overshoot and oscillate around the carrying capacity. S-Shaped Growth with Overshoot S-shaped growth with overshoot and oscillation: Examples Unlike the S-shaped growth case, the system does not reach equilibrium. When the population reaches its peak, the rate of decline of the carrying capacity is at its maximum. The carrying capacity continues to drop, resources per capita fall further, and the net increase rate of the population becomes negative. The state of the system declines. Even as it declines, the remaining population continues to consume the carrying capacity, so resources per capita remain. Summary The feedback structure of a system generates its behavior. Most dynamics observed in the real world are examples of a small set of basic patterns or modes of behavior. Three of these modes are fundamental: exponential growth, goal seeking, and oscillation. Each of these modes is generated by a particular underlying feedback structure. Exponential growth is generated by positive feedback processes, goal seeking is generated by negative feedback, and oscillation is generated by negative feedback with delays. More complex patterns of behavior such as S-shaped growth, growth with overshoot, and overshoot and collapse result from the nonlinear interaction of these basic feedback structures. Summary The principle that the structure of a system generates its behavior leads to a useful heuristic to help modelers discover the feedback loop structure of a ystem. Whenever a particular pattern of behavior is observed, you know which of the basic feedback structures must have been dominant during the period covered by the data. This heuristic is useful as an aid to the initial conceptualization process, modelers must also take care to search for an