国际与金融的现状及发展趋势（The present situation and development trend of International Finance）.docVIP

国际与金融的现状及发展趋势（The present situation and development trend of International Finance） Analysis of the current global economic situation and development trend by foreign banks The global financial crisis, governments have introduced policies to promote economic recovery and steady growth. In order to understand the current situation and development trend of the global economy and the impact on China, by Morgan Stanley, HSBC, Credit Agricole, French Paris bank and other 4 banks on 2009 on the global economic situation and development trend of the first half of the year was analyzed, the main points are as follows: First, the first half of the global economy is still in recession, but has improved considerably (1) the economic situation in the United States has improved, but the uncertainty has been greater. In addition to HSBCs optimistic estimate of the U.S. economic situation, other foreign banks agreed that the U.S. economy is uncertain. Morgan Stanley believes that higher mortgage interest rates is not conducive to the recovery of the real estate market, and rising oil prices will curb consumption; Indosuez think the stock market is the main cause of higher pessimism leads to better bear market rebound, the economic fundamentals have not improved, the silver industry and general business outlook is not optimistic that the Bank of Paris; France overcapacity and rising saving rate will restrict the economic growth. (two) the euro zone has not yet been marked by signs of recovery. Eurozone GDP fell 4.8% in the first quarter of 2009, a 10 year low, with investment and inventories down by 0.9% and 1%, respectively, as a major drop. Although German and French consumption growth, but Spain, Holland, Italy and other countries consumption fell sharply, so that the euro area overall consumption is still down about 0.5%. (three) a quarter of Japans economy has bottomed out, but the recovery will take time. Japans industrial production index picked up in the two quarter, but th