东亚副热带西风急流变化多模式模拟结果分析-气象科学.pdfVIP

30 5 Vo.l 30, No. 5 2010 10 SCIENT IA METEOROLOGICA SIN ICA Oct. , 2010 , . . , 2010, 30( 5): 694700. hang Yaocun, Guo Lan li. M u ltimodel ensem ble smi u lated changes in the subtrop icalwesterly jet over east Asia under the globalw arm ing cond ition. Scientia M eteorologica Sinica, 2010, 30( 5) : 694700. 张耀存 郭兰丽 ( , 210093) 利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告( IPCC AR4) 中等强度温室气体排放情 景试 ( SRES A 1B)多 个耦合模式的输出结果, 通过多模式集合的方法分析全球变暖背景下东亚 副热带西风急流的变化特征, 发现在多模式集合平均结果中, 随着温室气体增多温室效应进 一步 加剧, 冬季急流强度增强, 急流位置向北移动, 夏季急流强度也呈现出增强的趋势, 位置却向南移 动在全球变暖背景下, 冬季北半球从低纬到中高纬度对流层中高层温度将增加, 但低纬增温强 高纬增温弱, 导致副热带地区温度梯度增加, 夏季增温幅度比冬季大, 且强增温区向北移, 造成急流 轴北侧区域温度梯度增大, 并通过热成风关系使得急流区纬向风增强 P412 A M ultimodel en semble sim ulated changes in the subtropical w esterly jet over east A sia under the global warm ing condition Zhang Yaocun Guo Lan li (School of A tmo sp heric Sc iences, N anj ing Un iv ers ity, N anj ing 210093, Ch ina ) Abs tract The effect of enhanced greenhouse warm ing on the changes of subtropicalwesterly jet in location and intensity over eastAsia is exam ined, using themultimodelmonthlymean output smi ulated by coupled clmi ate models participating in the IPCC AR4 ( Fourth A ssessment Report) diagnostic exer cise. R esults are presented for theA 1B scenarioswhichwere produced using amoderate increasing levels of greenhouse gases. For the enhanced greenhousewarm ing expermi ents, themutimodel ensemble smi u lated an intensifi