巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-南非土耳其：寻求长期贸易合作-20170908-BNP Paribas-EM Strategy Desknote South Africa-Turkey,Add to long TRYZAR trade.pdfVIP

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巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-南非土耳其：寻求长期贸易合作-20170908-BNP Paribas-EM Strategy Desknote South Africa-Turkey,Add to long TRYZAR trade.pdf

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South Africa-Turkey: Add to long TRYZAR trade This document has been produced by:  We first recommended going long TRYZAR on 23 June with spot at 3.68 arguing that TRYZAR should appreciate due to the rate differential between the two countries. Piotr Chwiejczak Since then the recommendation including carry has returned 5%. BNP Paribas London Branch FX IR CEEMEA Strategist  On 11 August we recommended reducing the position by 50% and waiting for a better entry level. We now think that the tide for the TRY is about to rise again. Erkin Isik  Trade: Buy TRYZAR at 3.7550. Target 3.88 within three months versus 3.71 forward. BNP Paribas London Branch FX IR CEEMEA Strategist In our initial article, we recommended a long TRYZAR position due to both technical and Sai Ulluri macroeconomic considerations (see EM Strategy Plus, 23 June). The macroeconomic BNP Paribas London Branch argument remains in place. In short, Turkey is at the beginning of a deflation cycle with room for CEEMEA Graduate the inflation rate to drop sharply in the medium term. However, this is not the case for South Africa where the inflation rate has already fallen sharply and where we expect real rates to inch down gradually. Therefore the risk premium will continue to decline. The macroeconomic arguments … Our main reason for reduc