人民币升值对中国贸易附经济影响分析.docVIP

The Impact of RMB’s Appreciation on China’s Trade( Guihuan Zheng1,2, Li Guo2, Xuemei Jiang2, Xun Zhang1,2 and Shouyang Wang1,2,( 1Institute of Systems Science, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China 2School of Management, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China Abstract: With the announcement of reforming the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21,2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade. Since China being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime, no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question directly. In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue, coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: Japanese yen and Euro exchange rate. Our results show that RMB’s appreciation would not bring severe effects on China’s trade in 2005; however, the possible sustained reduction of export growth in 2006 should be paid more attention. It is also necessary and urgent to press forward with the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, and put up the related supporting policies to avoid such sudden fluctuation as the Japanese situation after “Plaza Accord”. JEL Classification: C53, F17, F31 Key words: RMB’s appreciation, China’s trade, Scenario analysis 1. Introduction The RMB exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement of exchange rate regime reform on July 21, 2005.The new regime, a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, allows RMB to rise by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the price of the previous day. With its rapid development, China’s economy has become an increasingly important element in the global economic development and integration. Against this backdrop, the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade attract great attention. Before