曼昆经济学原理(宏观经济分册)11.ppt

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曼昆经济学原理(宏观经济分册)11

Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage saving A nation’s saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity. A nation’s productive capability is determined largely by how much it saves and invests for the future. When the saving rate is higher, more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment. 一国的储蓄率是其长期经济繁荣的关键决定因素。 一个国家的生产能力主要取决于它为将来储蓄和投资了多少。 当储蓄率较高时,更多的资源用于新工厂和设备的投资。 Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage saving Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy. High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than low-income households. Any tax change that favors people who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes. 许多刺激储蓄的税法变动主要有利于富人。 高收入家庭中储蓄的比例高于低收入家庭。 任何有利于进行储蓄的人的税收变动也倾向于有利于高收入的人。 * This is Figure 14-1 on p.384 of the text. The red line is the actual unemployment rate. Each blue line represents the median of 20 forecasts of the unemployment rate at the date shown. The first three forecasts all failed to predict the severity of the recession (each shows unemployment falling after a quarter or two, when in fact the unemployment rate kept rising). The last three forecasts failed to predict the speed of the recovery. The point here is that forecasts are often not accurate, which opponents of activist policy emphasize. And without accurate forecasts, policies that act with uncertain lags may end up destabilizing the economy. * Table 15-1 on p.406 Despite all the alarms sounded by politicians and some economists, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is moderate when compared to other countries. (Of course, the U.S. has the largest GDP, so in absolute terms are debt is a whopper when compared to other countries’ government debts.) * With the Reagan tax cuts in the early 1980s, the debt-GDP ratio began its infamous rise. This graph suggests that this recent increase is not so horrible when viewed in the larger context of history. Nonethele

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