沿海地区可选方案对欧洲海岸带的影响.ppt

沿海地区 可选方案对欧洲海岸带的影响 2000-2050 展示框架 Executive?Summary Context?and ?scope ?? Introduction Coastal Zones Policy alternatives impacts on European Coastal Zones 2000 – 2050 沿海地区 可选方案对欧洲海岸带的影响 2000-2050 Scenario ? development? is ? a ? well? known ? tool ? for? the ? assessment ? of ? land ? use? changes? in ? a ? large? number? of ?studies.? Scenarios ? are? not? predictions; ? they ? are? an? approach ? to ? help ? manage? decisions ? based? on? interpretation ? of ? qualitative? descriptions ? of ? alternative? futures ? translated? into ? quantitative ? scenarios. 情景分析是评估土地利用变化的工具 非预测性 将定性描述转化为定量情景，以便做出正确的管理决策 Executive?Summary This ? report ? presents? the ? results ? obtained ? from ? the ? application ? the ? EUClueScanner land ‐use? model? for? the ? simulation? of ? two ? policy?alternatives ? relevant? to ? Integrated? Coastal ? Zones? Management? in ? Europe.? The ? model? has? been? run ? implementing ? the ? 1‐km?spatial ?resolution, ?10?land ? use?classes ? configuration, ? for?the ?period ?2000‐2050.? 利用模型模拟两种可选方案（不受控制政策可持续政策）对欧洲海岸带综合管理的影响结果 空间分辨率:1km 土地利用类别：10种 时间跨度：2000-2050年 Executive?Summary A? set? of ? indicators ? has? been? then ? computed? on? the ? basis? of ? the ? projected ? European ? land use? maps.? In ?particular ? the ? growth ? of ? built ‐up? areas? is ? taken? as ? the ? main? metric? to ? evaluate? the ? pressure? on? coastal ?zones. ? Indeed,?the ? share? of ? built ? up? areas? in ? the ? costal? zones? is ? almost ? double ? than ? in ? the ? overall ? EU?continental ?surface.? 以建设用地的增长作为估计海岸带压力的的主要度量指标。 建设用地在海岸带面积所占的比例是其占整个欧洲大陆总面积比例的两倍。 Executive?Summary For? the ? entire? territory ? of ? the ?EU,? the ? increase ? in ? built‐up? areas? for? the ? Uncontrolled? policy? alternative? between ? 2000? and ? 2050? is ? 7.49 ? %? higher ? than ? the ? increase ? under? the ? Sustainable ? policy? alternative. ? Taking ? into ?account? just ? the ? Coastal ? Zones?， the ? increase ? in ? built‐up? is ? 7.85 ?%? higher ? under? the