约克大学summer-math-宏观经济-lecture-7.pptxVIP

Macroeconomics Lecture 7: Economic Growth 2 2 Theories of Economic Growth Data – what we are trying to understand Scientific method and theorizing in economics Theories of Economic Growth Linear Stages (Rostow) The Harrod-Domar growth model The Lewis structural change model The Solow model Endogenous growth theory 3 Theories of Economic Growth Two (preliminary) hypotheses: Convergence (in standards of living) Rationale: technology transfer diminishing returns to investment Structural change Rationale: empirical evidence Lewis model 4 Figure 2.8 Convergence among OECD Countries but Divergence in the World as a Whole 5 Figure 2.9 Per Capita GDP Growth in 125 Developing Countries, 1995-2005 6 Figure 2.10 Growth Convergence and Absolute Income Convergence 7 Theories of Economic Growth Components of Economic Growth Capital Accumulation Physical Capital Infrastructure Human Capital Population Growth Total Factor Productivity Technological Progress Institutional Quality 8 Structural Change Models The Lewis model Two sectors – Urban/Manufacturing, and Rural/Agricultural ‘Surplus labour’ in the rural sector Implies ‘self-sustaining growth’ and that the rural/agricultural sector will eventually become economically efficient. 9 Figure 3.1 10 Structural Change Models Criticisms of the Lewis model Reinvestment assumption – capital flight? Investment in Labour-saving technology? (see next slide) Zero labour productivity in rural sector assumption – data suggest that there is no surplus labour Competitive urban sector labour market – data suggest that unemployment frequently high in urban areas, and that labour markets are uncompetitive. 11 The Neoclassical model of economic growth Free market approach Public choice approach The Solow (1957) model Evidence on Convergence 12 The Solow model Ingredients (Assumptions): The Production function Y = f(K,L) Diminishing marginal returns to inputs Constant returns to scale Savings and Investment Net Investment = Gross Investment –