一次高影响小雨过程预报失误的原因初探.pdfVIP

Open Journal of Nature Science 自然科学, 2017, 5(3), 274-285 Published Online July 2017 in Hans. /journal/ojns /10.12677/ojns.2017.53038 Preliminary Discussion on the Failure Forecasting Related to a High-Impact Light Rain in Shanghai Chunhong Shi Shanghai Meteorological Center, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai th th th Received: Jun. 16 , 2017; accepted: Jul. 7 , 2017; published: Jul. 10 , 2017 Abstract Due to the failure forecast on a light rain of 8-9 April 2010 in Shanghai, the highest temperature forecast is fault, the error near 7˚C. In this paper, the possible reasons of failure forecast on the high-impact light rain are discussed. The results show that: the lower (850 hPa) mesoscale fron- togenesis slows down the moving speed of low-level shortwave trough, causing the shortwave trough appearing a unusual “forward-lean” vertical structure during the trough movement, lead- ing to the trough line of high-level (500 hPa) passing through Shanghai but the lower-pressure system havent and the light rain process sustains. Obviously, the unexpected phenomenon is dif- ficult to forecast in operation. Furthermore, the forecast results have not been timely adjusted when the early forecasts have already shown the significant deviations, because of the inertia fo- recasting thinking. And the mesoscale analysis based on the numerical model products is not in-depth enough. Particularly, the limited capabilities of numerical model forecast on the weak process and its weather elements, are the main reasons for ultimate forecast failure. Finally, some inspirations on the forecast of spring light rain