长江大通水文站流量减少及其原因分析.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 326-336 Published Online August 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.34040 The Decrease of the Flow and Its Cause at Datong Hydrological Station of the Yangtze River Yanshu Rong, Xiaoyan Liu College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing Email: ysron@, 406480534@ st th th Received: Aug. 1 , 2014; revised: Aug. 8 , 2014; accepted: Aug. 12 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The increase in temperature not only causes changes in many other climate elements but also al- ters the timing and magnitude of runoff. Such changes raise the possibility of environmental and socioeconomic dislocations, and they have important implications for future water resources planning and management. Datong hydrological station, located at downstream of the Yangtze River, is an important station controlling the Yangtze River basin and is the uppermost boundary of ocean tide rising of East China Sea. Its hydrological elements change obviously because of cli- mate warming. In the present paper, simple and multiple regression analysis and M-K method were used to research the variations and trends of flow and meteorological elements of Datong hydrological station. The results showed that there were obvious intra- and inter-annual varia- tions for the annual mean flow during the year of 1951-2011 in Datong station. The annual mean and high water period flow decreased significantly and low w