全美顶级MBA教材《数据模型和决策》教学（权威工商管理教材）1 11.ppt

Chapter 9: Building and Using Decision Models Models A model is an abstraction or representation of a real system, idea, or object. Picture Spreadsheet Mathematical relationships Types of Decision Models Descriptive - describe relationships and provide information for evaluation Prescriptive (optimization models) - determine an optimal policy, that is, the best course of action that a decision maker should take to maximize or minimize some objective New Store Financial Analysis Model Spreadsheet Net Present Value Measures the worth of a stream of cash flows, taking into account the time value of money. A cash flow of F dollars t time periods in the future is worth F/(1 + i)t dollars today, where i is the discount rate. Building Decision Models on Spreadsheets Organize information into a logical framework that will make the spreadsheet easier to develop and reduce errors Sketch a logical design of the spreadsheet Separate the model inputs from the model itself and to reference the input cells in the model formulas Example Profit = Revenue - Cost Revenue depends on the unit price and quantity sold. Total cost depends on the unit cost, quantity produced, and relevant fixed costs. Profit = (Unit price)(Quantity sold) - Cost Profit = (Unit price)(Quantity sold) - [Fixed cost + (Unit cost)(Quantity produced)] Profit Model Spreadsheet Elements in Models Constant data Uncontrollable inputs, quantities that can change, but cannot be directly controlled by the decision?maker. Controllable inputs, often called decision variables. Spreadsheet Quality Improve the design and format of the spreadsheet itself. Improve the process used to develop a spreadsheet. Inspect your results carefully and use appropriate tools available in Excel. Use cell and range names Use the Data Validation tool Inspect and audit formulas Model Assumptions All models reflect assumptions used by the modeler. Assumptions simplify models and make them easier to manipulate and solve