国际经济学CH19.ppt

Chapter 19 Macroeconomic Policy and Coordination under Floating Exchange Rates Chapter Organization The Case for Floating Exchange Rates The Case Against Floating Exchange Rates Macroeconomic Interdependence Under a Floating Rate What Has Been Learned Since 1973? Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even and Option for Most Countries? Directions for Reform Summary Appendix: International Policy Coordination Failures Introduction The floating exchange rate system, in place since 1973, was not well planned before its inception. By the mid-1980s, economists and policymakers had become more skeptical about the benefits of an international monetary system based on floating rates. Why has the performance of floating rates been so disappointing? What direction should reform of the current system take? This chapter compares the macroeconomic policy problems of different exchange rate regimes. The Case for Floating Exchange Rates There are three arguments in favor of floating exchange rates: Monetary policy autonomy Symmetry Exchange rates as automatic stabilizers The Case for Floating Exchange Rates Monetary Policy Autonomy Floating exchange rates: Restore monetary control to central banks Allow each country to choose its own desired long-run inflation rate The Case for Floating Exchange Rates Symmetry Floating exchange rates remove two main asymmetries of the Bretton Woods system and allow: Central banks abroad to be able to determine their own domestic money supplies The U.S. to have the same opportunity as other countries to influence its exchange rate against foreign currencies The Case for Floating Exchange Rates Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers Floating exchange rates quickly eliminate the “fundamental disequilibriums” that had led to parity changes and speculative attacks under fixed rates. Figure 19-1 shows that a temporary fall in a country’s export demand reduces that country’s output more under a fixed rate than a floating rate. The Case Against Floating Exc