基于统计降尺度模型预测鄱阳湖流域未来极值降水变化趋势.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 511-521 Published Online December 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.36063 Projected Changes of Extreme Precipitation Characteristics for the Poyang Lake Basin Based on Statistical Downscaling Model Xingjun Hong1,2, Shenglian Guo1,2, Jiali Guo2,3, Yukun Hou1,2, Le Wang1,2 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 2 Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Resources Security, Wuhan 3 College of Hydraulic Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Email: hongxingjun1989@ th th th Received: Oct. 16 , 2014; revised: Nov. 16 , 201; accepted: Nov. 20 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract As climate change will certainly result in strong response from extreme climatic events, investi- gating the spatio-temporal distribution and evolution laws of extreme climatic events is of great importance. Based on the daily precipitation from 1961 to 2005 from thirteen meteorological sta- tions within the Poyang Lake basin, daily precipitation for future period of 2010-2099 is simulated using the SDSM statistical downscaling model. Coupling a BCC-CSM1.1 GCM with three representa- tive concentration pathways (RCPs), the changing characteristics of magnitude, intensity and per- sistence of extreme precipitation are studied by means of several extreme precipitation indices. A bias correction procedure should be applied to the SDSM simulated historical precipitation before