技术的未来突破壁垒(Chinese).ppt

Technology’s Future:Breaking down Barriers Rick Rashid Microsoft Research Technology in the late 20th century Moore’s Law Computers double in power every 18 months Price/performance 1,000,000X boost in last 20 years 1,000,000X more in the next 20 years Moore’s Law true for last 35 years Likely to continue for at least 35 more years Exponential change means… The future rapidly washes away the past Exponential change means... More computing will take place in the next 10 years than in the previous history of mankind Exponential change means... Everything up to now doesn’t count …and you ain’t seen nothing yet Even more rapid change in graphics, storage and networking technologies will shape the next ten years Technology building momentum Graphics Factor of 100 improvement over 3 years Technology building momentum Storage Factor of 7 improvement in 2 years Technology building momentum Network bandwidth Factor of 64 improvement in 3 years Factor of 2 every 6 months New Technologies on the Horizon New Technologies (e.g. Dalton Group, Univ. of Wash.) Nanoscale materials and processing Single Wall Carbon Nanotube Actuators Condensed Matter Theory Many-body, long-range, spatial-anisotropic interactions Polymeric Electro-Optic Modulator Materials High Frequency Modulators; VLSI Integration; 1 volt Sensors detectors, EO signal transducers, Optical switches, Spatial light modulators, Oscillators, Phased array radar, A/D converters, Optical gyroscopes, Amplifiers New opportunities 100 GHz local area networks 1 THz wide area network Electro-optic backplanes and interconnects Technology in 21st century:Breaking down barriers The “reality” barrier Graphics, vision, signal processing Barriers between people Collaboration and communications tools Barriers between people and computers UI, language, speech, vision Barriers between people and information Databases, data mining, scalable computing Barriers between computers High speed networking Barriers between work,