基于ACS优化BP神经网络的交通流量短时预测方法-计算机工程与应用.PDFVIP

244 2014 ，50（10） Computer Engineering and Applications 计算机工程与应用 基于ACS 优化BP 神经网络的交通流量短时预测方法 1 2 赖锦辉 ，梁 松 1 2 LAI Jinhui , LIANG Song 1.广东石油化工学院 实验教学部 计算机中心，广东 茂名 525000 2.广东石油化工学院 计算机与电子信息学院，广东 茂名 525000 1.Computer Center, Department of Experiment Teaching, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong 525000, China 2.College of Computer and Electronic Information, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong 525000, China LAI Jinhui, LIANG Song. Short-time traffic flow forecasting method based on BP neural network optimized by ACS. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2014, 50 （10）：244-248. Abstract ：Traffic flow prediction is a very important research area of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional prediction methods does not work very well because of the complexity of the influencing factors. So an ACS algorithm based on t distribution adaptive mutation is proposed. By setting dynamic variation control scales and multiple degrees of freedom to construct adaptive mutation algorithm. Overall optimization results can be obtained, which is better than Gaussian mutation and Cauchy mutation. And then short-time traffic flow forecasting method is proposed which based on BP neural network optimized by ACS. By optimizing the initial weights and threshold parameters, it can improve the short-term traffic flow prediction accuracy. The simulation results show that it can get better prediction results. Key words ：short-term traffic flow prediction; neural network; variability factor; improved cuckoo search algorithm 摘 要：交通流量预测是智能交通系统中非常重要的研究领域，因为交通流量的复杂性，传统的预测方法不能很好 t 地预测。提出一种基于 分布自适应变异优化的布谷鸟算法，通过动态变异控制尺度和设置多个自由度来构造自适 应变异算法，可以获得优于高斯变异和柯西变异的整体优化效果。在此基础上，提出改进布谷鸟搜索算法优化神经 网络的交通流量预测模型（ACS-BPNN ），通过优化BP 神经网络的初始权值和阈值参数，以提高短时交通流量预测 精度。仿真结果表明，该方法取得比较好的预测结果。 关键词：交通流量预测；神经网络；变异尺度；改进布谷鸟搜索算法 文献标志码：A 中图分类号：TP