谁来解救乌克兰 西方还是俄罗斯(双语).doc

谁来解救乌克兰：西方还是俄罗斯？(双语) 2014-03-18 15:43:27　来源: 中国日报网(北京)　 是民众对经济糟糕状况的不满激起了最近这场抗议活动。反过来，这又引发时任总统维克多·亚努科维奇的残酷镇压，反对派于是众志成城最终把亚努科维奇赶下了台。 The Ukrainian crisis is quickly becoming a geostrategic conflict. The Crimean parliaments declaration of independence from Ukraine ahead of the March 16 referendum indicates Crimea may possibly join Russia. As Russian President Vladimir Putin maneuvers to restore Russias right to behave with a superpowers impunity-particularly in its own backyard-the West pushes back. But economic forces also have shaped this confrontation, especially Ukraines record as the worlds worst performing industrial economy over the last 20 years. It was popular discontent with this disastrous performance that fomented the recent dissent. This, in turn, triggered a bloody response from ousted Crimean President Viktor Yanukovych. His response consolidated the opposition-and ultimately cost Yanukovych his job. Beyond this weeks political and military maneuvers, the outstanding question is: Who will bail out the Ukrainian economy? Russia, or the EU and the United States? A bailout will be the price of drawing Ukraine into one of the two trading systems on offer. Stated simply, Ukraine is the economic equivalent of a failed state. After gaining independence in 1991, the country moved briefly to liberalize its economy along the same lines as most of Eastern and Central Europe. However, Ukraine soon jettisoned its reforms in favor of the state-oligarch model, which was also evolving in Russia. Some 20 years later, Ukraines GDP has shrunk 30 percent. Even Russias sorry economy is 20 percent larger than it was in 1991. And Polands economy, which looked much like Ukraines in 1991, has grown 130 percent over the same period. Ukraines economic performance has been so terrible and for so long that its sovereign debt issues are now considered the equivalent of junk bonds. Even before the crisis, Ukraines credit rating was worse than Greeces. And it was no better than that o