中国西南边疆山区耕地利用变化的驱动力分析——以云南省为例.doc

中国西南边疆山区耕地利用变化的驱动力分析 ——以云南省为例* 王 伟 杨子生** （云南财经大学国土资源与持续发展研究所，昆明650221） 摘要：我国西南边疆山区可耕地较少，且耕地质量偏差，陡坡地、轮歇地占相当比重。近10年来，随着人口的增长和经济社会的发展，大量的耕地资源被非农建设所占用；生态退耕工程的实施，则使许多坡耕地转化为林草地。因此，耕地总面积已呈现出日益减少的态势，并威胁到农业和整个社会的发展以及区域的粮食安全。本文以云南省为例，运用主成分分析以及多元线性回归分析等系统分析与数量统计的方法，分析了影响耕地资源变化的驱动因素，并揭示出云南省耕地资源变化的主导驱动因素及其驱动机制。结果表明，经济发展和人口因素是省域耕地面积变化的主导驱动因素，它们对云南省耕地面积变化的贡献率分别达83.13%和11.31%。这两类因子对云南耕地变化的累计贡献率达到了94.44%。此外，政策、技术等因素对云南耕地变化也有明显影响。这一研究可云南省耕地资源的合理有效利用提供决策基础，并供国内类似省（区）在耕地资源利用决策时参考。 关键词：耕地利用；变化；驱动力；主成分分析；山区省份 The Driving Forces of Farmland Use Change in Mountainous Area at China’s Southwest Border: A Case Study in Yunnan Province WANG Wei , YANG Zi-sheng （Institute of Land Resources and Sustainable Development, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming 650221, China） Abstract: There are very few arable lands in mountainous area at China’s southwest border, and the farmland quality is low, including a large proportion of steep sloping fields and swiddening land. In the recent 10 years, a large number of farmland resources have been occupied by nonagricultural construction with the population increase and the development of the economy and society, and many sloping farmlands have turned to woodlands or grasslands by the implementation of the policy of reusing farmlands. Therefore the total farmland area is decreasing gradually, threatening the agriculture, the social development, and the regional food security. This thesis has analyzed the social driving factors causing changes to farmland use, and discloses the major driving factors changing Yunnan farmland use and its changing mechanism, with analysis and statistics methods such as principal component analysis, and multivariate linear regression analysis. The result indicates that economic development and population increase are the major factors changing Yunnan farmland area, with contribution rates being 83.13% and 11.31% respectively. The two factors has a total contribution rate of 94.44% to Yunnan’s farmland change. Be