作文素材总库CreateTime.ppt

Information Collection - Key Strategy Motivation To reduce uncertainty which makes us choose “second best” solutions as insurance Concept Insert an information-gathering stage (e.g., a test) before decision problems, as an option Operation of Test EV (after test) EV (without test) Why? Because we can avoid bad choices and take advantage of good ones, in light of test results Question: Since test generally has a cost, is the test worthwhile?What is the value of information?Does it exceed the cost of the test? Value of Information - Essential Concept Value of information is an expected value Expected value after test “k” = ??pk(Dk*) Pk = probablility, after test k, of an observation which will lead to an optimal decision (incorporating revised probabilities due to observation) Dk* Expected Value of information= EV (after test) - EV (without test)= ??pk(Dk*) - ??pk(Ej)Oij Expected Value of Perfect Information - EVPI Perfect information is a hypothetical concept Use: Establishes an upper bound on value of any test Concept: Imagine a “perfect” test which indicated exactly which Event, Ej, will occur By definition, this is the “best” possible information Therefore, the “best” possible decisions can be made Therefore, the EV gain over the “no test” EV must be the maximum possible - an upper limit on the value of any test! EVPI Example Question: Should I wear a raincoat? RC - Raincoat; RC - No Raincoat Two possible Uncertain Outcomes (p = 0.4) or No Rain (p = 0.6) EVPI Example (continued) Application of EVPI A major advantage: EVPI is simple to calculate Notice: Prior probability of the occurrence of the uncertain event must be equal to the probability of observing the associated perfect test result As a “perfect test”, the posterior probabilities of the uncertain events are either 1 ot 0 Optimal choice generally obvious, once we “know” what will happen Therefore, EVPI can generally be written directly No need to use Bayes’ Theorem Expected Value of Sam