建设用地论文：塔城地区建设用地规模扩张及其驱动力研究.docVIP

建设用地论文：塔城地区建设用地规模扩张及其驱动力研究 【中文摘要】土地是社会经济发展的基础和空间保障。土地利用变化不仅直接影响到社会经济的可持续发展,而且还是全球环境变化的重要组成部分,因此,土地利用变化的研究在国内外备受关注。建设用地通常是指用于建造建筑物,构筑物及其使用范围的土地,它利用的是土地的承载力。建设用地需求量预测是土地利用总体规划中及其重要的一部分,要科学合理地编制土地利用总体规划,则必须对建设用地需求量进行较为准确的预测。本文通过对建设用地需求的影响因素进行分析,构建了塔城地区建设用地需求预测模型,并结合塔城地区2002-2008年社会经济发展资料,选取与建设用地需求量呈显著相关的因子,运用多元线性回归法预测塔城地区未来10年建设用地需求进行预测,得出以下主要结论:1城市用地、建制镇用地、独立工矿用地的扩张的驱动力因素是二、三产业以及GDP、固定资产投资和城镇人口;农村居民点用地扩张的影响因素是GDP和固定资产投资;交通用地的扩张来自GDP、固定资产投资、客运量、货运量四因素的驱动;水利设施用地的扩张来自第一产业产值、耕地面积两项因子。2经过预测可以得到2011年和2020建设用地需求量分别为: 1379045.4公顷和1448705.7公顷。以此以作为塔城地区未来建设用地的需求量,应用于土地利用规划指标的制定和日常的土地管理工作中。 【英文摘要】Land is the basis space security of social and economic development.The chang of land use is not only a direct impact on sustainable socio-economic development, but also an important component of global environmental change,and hence,land use change research in domestic and international concern.Usually refers to construction land for the construction of buildings, structures and the use of the land which makes use of the land carrying capacity.Construction land demand forecast is the overall planning of land use and important part of the scientific and rational manner to the preparation of land using planning: the demand for land for construction must be carried out more accurate predictions.In this paper, land-use planning in the construction land demand is forecast to be studied,through the construction of land demand analysis of the factors affecting the constructed construction land of Tacheng demand forecasting model,combining social and economic of Tacheng development information in 2002-2008, select the demand for land and construction-related factors were significant, the use of multiple linear regression analysis and forecasting method of Tacheng the next 10 years to predict the demand for construction land, draw the following conclusions:First an urban land use, land towns, the expansion of independent industrial and mining land use factor is the driving force of the second a