Conditional Convergence and the Solow Model an Empirical Study条件收敛和索洛模型的实证研究.docx

Conditional Convergence and the Solow Model: an Empirical Study Erasmus University RotterdamRotterdamSchool of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsM.V. TimakovaStudent Number: 302900Supervisor: Prof. Dr. G. Facchini29 July 2011AcknowledgementsBefore I begin, I would like to take this opportunity to thank a number of people for their help and support throughout the process of writing this thesis. First of all, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. G. Facchini, who has helped me structure my research and provided valuable comments and advice, whenever this was necessary. I am also very grateful to my parents for their continuous support.AbstractThis paper explores the empirical evidence on conditional convergence. It uses cross-country data for 86 countries over the period of 45 years (1960-2005). The paper uses the Solow model as the basis for the analysis. We find that the data does not support the presence of absolute convergence, but there is instead evidence to confirm the existence of convergence conditional on investment and population growth, as well as human capital. The results also show that a number of additional variables do not account for much of the variation in international income growth levels. ContentsAcknowledgements2Abstract3Chapter 1 Introduction3Chapter 2 Economic growth and convergence, the Solow model32.1 The basic Solow model32.2 Conditional versus Absolute convergence3Chapter 3 Dynamics of the model33.1 Defining economic growth33.2 Demographic trends33.3 Foreign Direct Investment33.4 Trade (Openness)33.5. Government Expenditure33.6 Political Situation33.7 Natural resources3Chapter 4 Methodology34.1 The main variables34.2 Secondary Variables34.3 Country Classifications3Chapter 5 The Empirical Implications of the Solow model35.1 Basic Solow model35.2 Solow model with human capital35.3 Solow model and convergence3Chapter 6 Results36.1 Preliminary results36.2 Absolute and Conditional Convergence36.3 Convergence with a