中国环境污染事故发生与经济发展的动态关系-北京玛格泰克科技发展.pdfVIP

中国环境科学 2010,30(4) ：571~576 China Environmental Science 中国环境污染事故发生与经济发展的动态关系 杨 洁 1,2,毕 军 1*,张海燕 1,李凤英 1,周鲸波 2,刘蓓蓓 1 (1.南京大学环境学院,污染控制与资源化研究国家 重点实验室,江苏 南京 210093 ；2.苏州科技学院,江苏 苏 215011) 摘要：基于 1992~2006 年中国经济发展和环境污染事故时序数据,建立了中国经济发展和环境污染事故发生的计量模型, 以此来分析中国 环境安全状态的发展阶段与趋势.结果表明,中国环境污染事故频数与经济增长之间呈现倒“N ”型波浪式的 EKC 特征.环境污染事故频数、 水污染事故频数、大气污染事故频数随着人均 GDP 的快速提高, 先下降、后上升、再下降, 但还会出现反复.环境污染事故的发生不同于 环境污染物的排放,不是经济发展过程中的必然产物,但是却具有非常大的不确定性和危害性,必须利用先进的政策、制度和技术,才可以有 效减少污染事故的发生. 关键词：环境污染事故；经济增长；环境库兹涅茨特征；环境安全 中图分类号：X321 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1000-6923(2010)04-0571-06 Evolvement of the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth in China. YANG 1,2 1* 1 1 2 1 Jie , BI Jun , ZHANG Hai-yan , LI Feng-ying , ZHOU Jing-bo , LIU Bei-bei (1.State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China ；2.Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215011, China). China Environmental Science, 2010,30(4)：571~576 Abstract ：The econometric model between economic growth and environmental pollution accident in China was established to identify the phase of environmental safety and its trend, based on the time series data from 1992 to 2006. The results showed that the relationship between environmental pollution accident and economic growth shaped as an inverted-N curve of EKC in China. Frequencies of environmental pollution accidents, water pollution accidents and air pollution accidents would first decline, and increase, and then decline, with the rapid increase of GDP per capita. The trend could appear repeatedly. Different from that of emissions discharge, the occurrence of pollution accidents is not inevitable during the process of economic