美赛论文格式参考(summary sheet).docVIP

For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________ Team Control Number10530 ? Problem ChosenC For office use only F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________ 2011 Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM) Summary Sheet Assessing the Prospects of Electric Vehicles Summary With the growing scarcity of petroleum throughout the world, increased concern over the environmental impact of the petroleum-based transportation infrastructure has led to great interest in an electric transportation infrastructure. But uncertainty in how environmentally and economically sound are electric vehicles still exists, and that their widespread use is feasible and practical is still uncertain. Our paper aims to quantify the effects of the electric vehicles on the environment, society, economy, health, and model the amount and the type of electricity generation to get the most benefits to the environment, society, business, and individuals. In Model 1, we establish an evaluation model named Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to compare the environmental, social, economic, and health impacts of electric cars and fuel cars quantitatively. There are four parameters, including energy consumption, the greenhouse effect, emissions of harmful substances and noise pollution, which influence the environment. Of course, we conduct the similar work to analyze the influential parameters of society, economy and health. In term of the weights, we conclude that in general electric cars are better than fuel cars. In Model 2, using data, we adopt logistic regression to predict the proportion of electric vehicles in the future on three premises which include the baseline oil price, the high oil price and Operator-Subsidized premise. As time goes, the proportion of electric vehicles is increasingly bigger and the amount of energy savings is increasingly bigger. By 2030, the proportion of electric vehicles in auto market i