辽宁省木材供需系统影响因素及供需预测研究.pdfVIP

No.11 2012 林业经济 FORESTRY ECONOMICS ·调查与思考· 辽宁省木材供需系统影响因素及供需预测研究 陈 珂 张丽娜 (沈阳农业大学林学院沈阳110161) 摘 要：利用《辽宁省木材供需状况的实证研究》所得到的辽宁省2001~2010 年间木材总供给量和总需求量的 结果数据，以及辽宁省各统计年鉴和统计资料公布的统计数据，建立辽宁省木材供需系统的计量经济模型， 考察分析了辽宁省木材供需系统中占有重要作用且能够量化的各种因素的影响程度与主要原因。分别建立 木材供给量、需求量的三次指数平滑模型，并对辽宁省2011~2015 年间木材的供需做出预测。研究发现：辽宁 省内自产材价格、进口材价格、人口增长率3 个因素同时对辽宁省木材供给和木材需求产生重大影响，辽宁省 未来5 年木材供需矛盾不断加剧。 关键词：木材供需系统；影响因素；木材供需预测 中图分类号：F326.24 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1673-338X（2012）11-0070-06 The Influence Factors and Prediction Research on Wood Supply and Demand System in Liaoning Chen Ke Zhang Lina (College of Forestry, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161) Abstract: Use the data of 2001-2010 timber total supply and demand of liaoning province from ”the empirical study of timber supply and demand situation in liaoning province”, and the data from statistical yearbook of liaoning province, to establish econometric model of timber supply and demand system, we investigate all the quantificat fac⁃ tors and the level of influence, analysis the main reason of the factors affecting timber supply and demand in liaoning province.We establish three exponential smoothing model of timber supply and demand, to carry out the prediction research on timber supply and demand during 2011-2015. Research conclusions are as follows: the timber price of liaoning province, import timber price, population growth rate, this three factors have the important influence for timber supply and demand in liaoning province, during 2011-2015 the contradiction between timber supply and de⁃ mand increased in liaoning province. Key Words: tim