全球基本面透视铜价走势.ppt

全球基本面透视铜价走势中长期铜市基本面展望as of 07/20/2009 By cherry Cherry.wang@ Ginion Bank Investment Consultant Inc.基 联 商 银 投 资 顾 问 有 公 司 中长期稳健上行趋势 全球供需状态以温和过剩为主 精铜供应较去年预期有所滑落 精铜需求降幅同样显著 温和过剩仍是市场主要预期 中国给铜价的“惊喜”能否延续 刺激政策效应显现 国内外走势 库存是实体基本面最直接表现 Disclaimer ·声明书 Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but Ginionbank Investment Consulting or its affiliates do not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to Ginionbank Investment Consulting and the analyst’s involvement with the issuer that is the subject of the research. The above views reflect those of Ginionbank Investment Consulting Inc. as at the date of publication. They are intended for general information and /or discussion of the topic. They are not intended to be relied upon in any way by any investors in investment products. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure accuracy of the information, no liability whatsoever will be accepted by Ginionbank Investment or the author whether in contract, tort or otherwise, for any error of fact or omission herein which may lead to any direct or consequently loss arising from any reliance upon or use of this report. 如果您需要更多的相关资讯欢迎与我公司联系。此报告的所有信息都为可靠性内容，但基联商银投顾公司或其关系企业都不对其完整性、精确性负有必要责任。除非是基联商银投顾公司及其分析员参与的投资性项目。本资料系由基联商银研究部提供，同时提醒您: 本资料仅提供一般资讯以及本文主题之讨论，系属参考性质，不应被投资者视为任何投资性产品的投资依据。如投资人依据或参考本资料为投资时，基联商银或本文作者不为任何因本资料不正确或不完整性所致投资人直接或间接之损失负任何责任。 * * 中国北京市朝阳区东三环南路58号富顿中心A座11层1111室 联系电话 1111A, Fudun Center, Rd. No 58, Dongsanhuan South, Chaoyang District, Beijing China 下半年，铜价运行主要围绕两个方面： 实体经济出现触底后，具体恢复程度与市场预期间的差异 市场对工业品金融属性的追逐 从实体基本面考虑，倾向涨得越稳，越能留更多可持续空间。 因过剩量放大、中国进口累积下的显性隐性库存，可能使当前水平铜价的进一步上涨略显迟滞。 上游产能变动中原材料瓶颈缓和为主 未来2-3年经济复苏时间段内，上游铜供给不会出现显著产能停滞，铜矿产能增速整体好于冶炼产能增速 若经济复苏