基于灰色理论的汽车缺陷风险评估模型.docxVIP

基于灰色理论的汽车缺陷风险评估模型琰1)黄国忠1)宋存义1)松2)靖1)王王王1) 北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院 , 北京 1000832) 国家质量监督检验检疫总局缺陷产品管理中心 , 北京 100088摘 要 应用事件树方法确定了汽车缺陷风险传递路径 ,将缺陷风险转化为失效风险进行等效研究 . 根据汽车缺陷风险特点 ,建立了风险评估 SPN 模型 ,并以三维矩阵图描述汽车缺陷风险 ;针对汽车的不合理风险及汽车缺陷数据离散和波动的状 态 ,提出了基于灰色理论的风险预测方法 ;以失效预测数据作为风险评估的风险概率预测基础 ,建立汽车缺陷的失效预测模型 ,采用残差辨识法检验模型精度 . 研究结果表明 :在掌握实际的汽车售后零部件故障数据情况下 ,模型对汽车缺陷风险概率 预测具有较好的适用性 .关键词 汽车 ; 缺陷 ; 风险评估 ; 模型 ; 适用性分类号 U 461191Risk a ssessment model of a utomobile def ects ba sed on the gra y theoryW A N G Y an1) , HU A N G Guo2z hong1) , S O N G Cu n2yi1) , W A N G Y u n2song2) , W A N G J i n g1)1) School of Civil and Enviro nmental Engineering , U niversit y of Science and Technology Beijing , Beijing 100083 , China2) Defective Pro duct Administ rative Center , General Administ ratio n of Qualit y Supervisio n , Inspectio n and Quarantine of PRC , Beijing 100088 , ChinaABSTRACT In order to carry out equivalent st udy bet ween defect risks and failure defect s , t he event t ree analysis ( E TA) met hod was int roduced to determine t he risk flow route of auto mobile defect s. An SPN model for risk assessment was set up based o n charac2 teristics of auto mobile defect risks , and a 3D mat rix grap h was int roduced to describe overall risks. According to t he scat tered and fluct uant characteristics of auto mobile defect data , a risk forecast met hod based o n t he gray t heory was p roposed , and a failure fore2 casting model of auto mobile defect s was built wit h failure data as t he basis of forecasting risk possibility. The p recisio n of t he failure forecasting model was p roved by residual discriminatio n. It is shown t hat o n gat hering act ual failure data f ro m af ter2sales service , t he gray model has a favorable applicabilit y for forecasting risk possibility.KEY WO RDS auto mobile ; defect s ; risk assessment ; model ; applicabilit yanalysis , FM EA) 和 决 策 图 方 法 分 析 汽 车 风 险[ 2- 3 ] .但是 , 上述方法未考虑风险发生的可能性因素 , 局限 于对失效的严重度或后果进行论证 , 且对汽车整车 和零部件可靠性试验数据的依赖度较高 ,