中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给-厦门大学.PDFVIP

中国城镇居民住房的需求与供给 邹至庄 普林斯顿大学 牛霖琳 厦门大学王亚南经济研究院 2009 年8 月 摘要 本文研究了自 1980 年代后期中国城镇住房商品化以来城镇居民住房的需求与供给。我们从 耐用消费品需求与供给的标准理论出发，在联立方程框架下估计城镇住房的需求与供给方 程，得到了需求的收入与价格弹性及供给的价格弹性的估计值。通过对 1987-2006 年全国城 镇总体水平年度数据的分析，我们发现城镇住房价格的快速上涨主要可由需求与供给的作用 解释，即人均收入和建筑成本的变化决定了房价的整体趋势。城镇住房需求的（长期）收入 弹性约为1，需求的价格弹性在0.5 到0.6 之间。住房存量总供给的价格弹性约为0.83 。 关键词：住房需求、住房供给、联立方程 Abstract This paper addresses the issue of demand and supply for residential housing in urban China since the late 1980s when the urban housing market became commercialized. We start with the basic premise that the standard theory of demand for and supply of consumer durable goods is applicable to urban housing in China after the market for housing was established. In a simultaneous equations framework we provide estimates of income and price elasticities of demand and price elasticity of supply. Analysis of aggregated annual data from 1987 to 2006 shows that the rapid increase of urban residential housing can be well explained by the forces of demand and supply, i.e., growth in income and change in construction cost determines the aggregated movement in housing price to a large extent. We have found the (long-run) income elasticity of demand for urban housing to be about 1, and the price elasticity of demand to be between -0.5 and -0.6. The price elasticity of supply of the total stock of housing is about 0.83. Keywords: housing demand, housing supply, simultaneous equations JEL classification: R2, C3 1．介绍 从上个世纪八十年代后期中国城镇住房商品化开始，中国城镇的商品房住宅价格从 1987 年 的平均每平方米408.18 元迅速上升至2006 年的3119.25 元，年均增长率达到 11.3% （数据 见本文表 1）。房价的上涨受到了中国政府和民众的广泛关注。政府经常把价格的上涨归咎 于投机，因而采取干预住房市场的措施。比如，规定新房购买者在购房两年内转售要付相当 于交易额5%的营业税；贷款购买第二套住房的，首付款比例不得低于40% 。本文主要在于 说明从整体和长期来看，中国城镇住房的价格主要是