运筹学Ⅲ教学资料 21 Simulation.pdfVIP

Simulation Simulation is a very powerful and widely used management science technique for the analy- sis and study of complex systems. In previous chapters, we were concerned with the formu- lation of models that could be solved analytically. In almost all of those models, our goal was to determine optimal solutions. However, because of complexity, stochastic relations, and so on, not all real-world problems can be represented adequately in the model forms of the pre- vious chapters. Attempts to use analytical models for such systems usually require so many simplifying assumptions that the solutions are likely to be inferior or inadequate for implemen- tation. Often, in such instances, the only alternative form of modeling and analysis available to the decision maker is simulation. Simulation may be defined as a technique that imitates the operation of a real-world sys- tem as it evolves over time. This is normally done by developing a simulation model. A simu- lation model usually takes the form of a set of assumptions about the operation of the system, expressed as mathematical or logical relations between the objects of interest in the system. In contrast to the exact mathematical solutions available with most analytical models, the sim- ulation process involves executing or running the model through time, usually on a computer, to generate representative samples of the measures of performance. In this respect, simula- tion may be seen as a sampling experiment on the real system, with the results being sample points. For example, to obtain the best estimate of the mean of the measure of performance, we average the sample results. Clearly, the more sample points we generate, the better our estimate will be. However, other factors, such as the starting conditions of the simulation, the length of the period being simulate