条件句推理与基于Bayes法则的概率模型精选.pdf

Advances in Psychology 心理学进展, 2012, 2, 256-261 doi:10.4236/ap.2012.25040 Published Online November 2012 (/journal/ap.html) Conditional Reasoning and Probabilistic Model Based on Bayes Rule Dingzhou Fei Department of Psychology, Wuhan University, Wuhan Email: dzhfei@ Received: Sep. 19th nd th , 2012; revised: Oct. 2 , 2012; accepted: Oct. 13 , 2012 Abstract: Conditional reasoning is the difficult and central points in psychology of reasoning. The current models include the mental logic, mental model, Logic Programming and recent probabilistic model based on Bayes rule. This paper discusses the strengths and shortcomings of these models. It must be pointed out that the probabilistic model has many advantages in explaining relevant experimental results over the mental logic and mental model theories. However, this model can not successfully deal with the reasoning about counter- factuals. This paper ends with the comments that the graph model which derives from the Bayes rule may be a better theory than the probabilistic model related to the counterfactuals reasoning. Keywords: Conditional Reasoning; Reasoning about Counterfactuals; Bayes Rule; Graph Model 条件句推理与基于Bayes 法则的概率模型 费定舟 武汉大学心理学系，武汉 Email: dzhfei@ 收稿日期：2012 年 9 月 19 日；修回日期：2012 年 10 月 2 日；录用日期：2012 年 10 月 13 日 摘 要：条件句的研究是推理心理学的难点和重点。现成的理论模型有 Mental rule ，Mental model 以 及最近兴起的基于 Bayes 法则的概率模型。本文结合相关实验结果，对这些模型的解释力进行了评价， 特别指出的是，Bayes 模型能成功地预测许多有关实验结果。但是在涉及反事实条件句推理的理论基 础等方面，Bayesian 模型存在严重的不足。本