门限自回归模型在降水量预报中应用——以我国义乌市为例.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 337-343 Published Online August 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.34041 Threshold Autoregressive Model in Rainfall Forecasting—A Case Study in Yiwu * Lingzi Zhu, Lihua Feng , Qiong Huang Department of Geography, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua * Email: 309442308@ th rd th Received: Jul. 16 , 2014; revised: Jul. 23 , 2014; accepted: Aug. 8 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The meteorological elements are not only combined effected by the impact factors, but also their own evolution. Multivariate analysis ignores the evolution of meteorological elements themselves, and the time-series analysis did not take full advantage of the implicit information about the im- pact factor. This article uses threshold autoregressive model by piecewise linearization method of nonlinear problem to deal with the meteorological elements, both considering influence factors of superimposition, and balancing the evolution law of meteorological elements themselves; the fit- ting and forecasting effect is relatively good. But now the time sequence of the meteorological elements is generally short, usually around 40 to 60 years, which belongs to the incomplete in- formation system, the extrapolation value should not be too long. It would be best to gradually replenish the new information in a timely manner to improve the fitting and forecasting results. Keywords Precipitation, Impact Facto