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中国经济需要新一轮的改革来注入活力，并且使其经济增长势头持续下去。 China’s declining economic growth rate has been discussed at different forums at length. Some scholars argue that China has exhausted all its advantages in demographic dividend, globalization and reform, and therefore the decline is unavoidable. There is nearly a consensus that China’s economy will slow down, and the debate is mainly on the actual rate of growth. 不同的论坛都已详细地对中国衰退的经济增速进行了讨论。一些学者认为中国已经用光了它在人口红利、全球化和改革上的全部优势，因此衰退是不可避免的。目前，在中国经济将要减速这个结论上已经基本形成了共识，讨论主要集中在真实的增长率上。 We should respect the economics cycle and not harbor the illusion of registering further double-digit growth. Our research shows that the fast-growing economies, with the sole exception of Taiwan, registered a drop in their growth rates in the fourth decade of their economic development. 我们应该尊重经济周期并且放弃获得更多两位数字增长的幻想。我们的研究显示，快速增长的经济体，台湾除外，在他们经济发展的第四个十年会遇到增长率的下跌。 But at the same time, we should not be pessimistic about slower growth. China’s economic growth is not destined to drop. A relatively strong growth for another decade or even longer can be realized if China can push forward its reform and innovation plan, build up human resources and participate in global governance. 但是同时，对于较慢的增长速度我们不应该悲观。中国的经济增速不是注定要下降的。如果中国能够坚持推行革新计划、增强人力资源、参与全球管理，那么在另一个十年乃至更长时间内，中国的经济增速将可以实现相对较强的增长。 Some economists have forecast that China’s demographic dividend, which means a high percentage of working-age population, will end in 2015. The sixth population census shows that China’s population growth is much slower than what the policymakers had expected, and the drop in the number of children and increase in the number of senior citizens have been beyond expectations too. 一些经济学家预测，意味着劳动年龄人口比重高的中国人口红利时期，将会在2015年终结。第六次人口普查显示中国的人口增速已经远远慢于决策者的预期，同时儿童数量的减少幅度和老年公民数目的增加幅度也超过了预期。 Australian economists Rodney Tyers and Jane Golley, however, say, China’s demographic dividend can last until 2030 if the actual working population, instead of the working-age population, is calculated. The number of w