博迪投资学Chap012章节.pptVIP

CHAPTER 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 12-* Bodie, Kane and Marcus Slides by Susan Hine McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Behavioral Finance Investors Do Not Always Process Information Correctly Investors Often Make Inconsistent or Systematically Suboptimal Decisions Information Processing Critique Forecasting Errors Overconfidence Conservatism Sample Size Neglect and Representativeness Behavioral Biases Framing Mental Accounting Regret Avoidance Prospect Theory Figure 12.1 Prospect Theory Limits to Arbitrage Fundamental Risk Implementation Costs Model Risk Limits to Arbitrage and the Law of One Price Siamese Twin Companies Equity Carve-outs Closed-End Funds Figure 12.2 Pricing of Royal Dutch Relative to Shell (Deviation from Parity) Evaluation of the Behavioral Critiques Bubbles and Behavioral Economics Arguments that the Evidence Does Not Support One Type of Irrationality Relatively New Field Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance Trends and Corrections Dow Theory Moving averages Breadth Sentiment Indicators Trin Statistic Confidence Index Put/Call Ratio Figure 12.3 Dow Theory Trends Figure 12.4 Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1988 Figure 12.5 Moving Average for Microsoft Example 12.4 Moving Averages Figure 12.6 Moving Averages Figure 12.7 Market Diary Table 12.1 Breadth Figure 12.8 Actual and Simulated Levels for Stock Market Prices of 52 Weeks Figure 12.9 Actual and Simulated Changes in Stock Prices for 52 Weeks