热点报告.ppt

前沿报告 程锋 2007.5.9 The first paper——How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data John Y. Campbella, Department of Economics, Harvard University Joa? o F. Coccob, London Business School Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007) 591–621 Introduction It’s tempting to attribute the correlation between house prices and consumption to a direct housing wealth effect: increasing house price increase housing wealth, which in turn stimulate consumption. The author casts doubt on these issues: First, Sibai and Souleles(2005)point out, homeowners with a long expected tenure are perfectly hedged against fluctuations in rents and the fluctuations in house prices. These fluctuation have no real wealth effect. Second, there are alternative explanations for the correlation between house prices and consumption. Wealth effect has different influence on different groups. The objective and specialty of this paper: Using micro data based on household level to distinguish among these alternative explanations of for the house prices-consumption relation. Data UK family expenditure survey (FES): including the dairy of each household’s expenditure, region, income, age and composition, homeownership status and mortgage information. It is helpful to estimate the response of consumption to house prices where the households lives, and control for changes in household incomes, the degree of household leverages, and household demographics. Methodology Conclusions: Large positive effect of house prices on consumption for the group of old households who are homeowners, and an effect that is close to zero for the group of young households who are renters. It means the age structure strongly influence the house price elasticity of consumption. (1.7,0) Regional house prices have more important effect on consumption than national house prices, this shows it’s important to consider regional heterogeneity when evaluating the influence of house prices to consumption. Consumpt