出口贸易对外汇储备的影响研究.doc

毕业论文 出口贸易对外汇储备的影响研究 A Study on the Export trade’s influence on the Foreign Reserve 学院专 业班 级学 号学生姓名指导教师A Study on the Export trade’s influence on the Foreign Reserve Abstract: During the last decade, China has kept the Reform and Open Policy, developed the import and export trade and economy booming. Meanwhile, the Foreign Reserve of China has increased at an alarming rate, which brought a two-side effect. Many scholars have empirically studied the relationship between foreign reserve and export trade and reached a series of various conclusions. Based on the economic data from 1991 to 2010 this thesis will use time series data of economic growth in China to analyze the long-time dynamic and complex relationship between foreign reserve and export trade. And it will put forward some policy recommendations based on the facts which will be helpful to improve the harmonious development of export trade and foreign reserve and contribute to developing economy and enhancing international competetive power. Keywords: export trade; Foreign reserve; China 正文目录 一、引言……………………………………………………………………1 二、文献回顾……………………………………………………………2-4 （一）国外研究概况……………………………………………………2-3 （二）国内研究概况……………………………………………………3-4 三、外汇储备与出口贸易的关系及分析………………………………4-12 （一）出口贸易对外汇储备的影响……………………………………4-10 （二）外汇储备对出口贸易的影响……………………………………10-11 四、结论及政策建议……………………………………………………11-13 参考文献…………………………………………………………………14-15  出口贸易对外汇储备的影响研究 一、引 言 中国改革开放以来，向世界各国开放市场，大力发展进出口贸易。出口的快速增长得益于世界经济的全面增长和各类企业开拓国际市场积极性的提高。出口规模不断扩大，贸易结构进一步改善，这都给中国的经济发展带来不可忽视的影响，其中包括对中国外汇储备增长的影响。 外汇储备指政府所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分，即一国政府保有的外币的债权?。是一个国家国际要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率 （一）国外研究概况 目前国外对于外汇储备和出口贸易关系的理论和实证研究主要以对外汇储备影响因素和最佳规模的研究为出发点，从各方面进行分析理论分析，研究外汇储备和出口贸易之间的直接或间接关系。 第一。从的经济学理论开始,多数的经济学家都认同这一观点。(重商主义的代表人物)认为，国际收支顺差是一国财富增长的源泉，但只有贸易顺差才真正带来财富增长，而资本的流入则不会。Ricard Demarmels和Andreas M. Fischer在Understanding reserve volatility in emerging markets: a look at the long-run[17]一文中检验了1973到2000年间30个新兴市场外汇储备波动率的长远影响因素，发现市场开放是影响外汇储备变化的最重