有限资源之渔业资源管理模型论文.docVIP

目 录 摘要 １ Abstract ３ ４ 1.1 ４ 1.2 ４ 1.3 ５ 1.4 ６ ８ 2.1 ８ 2.2 １０ 2.2.1 Scheafer模型 １０ 2.2.2 平衡态和可持续捕捞 １１ 2.2.3 最大可持续捕捞 １２ 2.2.4 生物学过度捕捞与种群灭绝 １３ １４ 3.1 １４ 3.2 １６ 3.3 １８ ２０ ２１ ２２ 1 ２２ 2 ２４  摘要 本文通过对渔业资源的需求分析，建立了渔业资源的有关管理模型，在无经济行为的情况下建立了平衡与稳定状态的模型，利用稳定性的分析方法得出了采用MSY策略（即捕捞强度控制在内禀增长率的一半时），便可获得最大可持续产量，同时指出了以产量最大为追求目标的捕捞决不会带来捕捞过度。在引进经济行为的情况下考虑了： 1、成本与价格的影响。建立了静态优化模型，利用微分法得出了在固定成本的价格体系中以优化持续净收益为目标的捕捞决不可能刺激人们对资源进行掠夺式的开发。 2、折扣因子（贴现强度）的影响。建立了动态优化模型，利用变分法和稳定性分析的方法得出了在考虑折扣因子的情况下的最大贴现净收益在边际损失等于边际得益处取得，并进一步分析了经济因素是导致过度捕捞，乃至资源枯竭的根本原因。 3、供需关系的影响。利用了已建立的平衡与稳定性的模型进行供需分析得出了过度的需求价格是促进掠夺式开发的又一个经济因素。 关键词：渔业资源、管理模型、经济行为、产量、净收益、平衡与稳定、静态优化、动态优化、成本与价格、折扣因子、供需关系、过度捕捞  Abstract This text analyses through the demand for fishery resources, Have set up managing models relevantly of fishery resources, Have set up the models of balance and stable state in a situation that there is no economic behavior, Utilize the stability analytical method to draw MSY tactics of adopting (namely catch the intensity and control while reporting half of rate of increase inside), Can obtain the largest sustainable output, Point out and pursue to catch and bring and catch with output excessively never goal greatly most at the same time. Have considered in case of introducing economic behavior: 1、Influence of the cost and price. Set up static behavior optimize models Utilize differentiation to be been drawn in the pricing system of the fixed cost. Taking optimizing the net income continuously as goal to catch and cannot irritate people go on the development of the robbing type to resource. 2、Influence of the factor of the discount (discounts the intensity). Have set up the trends and optimize models, Utilize calculus of variation and what method that stability analyze draw in case of considering factor of discounts most heavy to discount net income equal to margin benefit obtain in marginal loss, And has analyzed further that the economic factor causes and catch excessively, And even the exhausted basi