城乡发展联系与空间统计建模分析.ppt

介绍内容 经济学原理 空间统计学原理 城乡发展联系的理论与建模分析 相关研究方向 关于空间经济理论-空间聚集的外部经济效应 目标- 研究地区,城市和国际经济中下列因素相互作用: 增长回报效率 运输成本 生产要素的流动(人力,物力,资本) 空间聚集效应-空间联系要素的作用与影响 知识扩散 市场经济中专门化技能的优势 与规模较大的地区市场相关的到流和正向联系 空间分析问题 Is there any spatial cluster over space? Are spatial observations distributed randomly over space? Are spatial observations correlated (autocorrelation)? Is there any spatial outlier? Is there any spatial trend? What is the interaction (statistically and theoretically) between different variables? How to predict an unknown spatial value at a specific location. 常规统计学与空间统计学的差异 常规统计学　　　空间统计学 Data: Time-series data Spatial data (cross-sectional) Relationship: Time (yt-1, yt, yt+1) Topology (yi-1, yi, yi+1) Process: {Z(t), t?T} {Z(s;t), s?D(t), t?T} Model: Y = ?WY + ? t = 1, 2, 3, … wi,j = 1 if i is adjacent to j ? - time-series ? - spatial autocorrelation autocorrelation 辨识局部空间增长模式 指标定义与变量选择(1) Dependent variables: P8090(E8090)= Changes from 1980 to 1990 in total population (employment) in rural hinterland tracts. Explanatory variables: P80(E80) = 1980 total population (employment) in rural hinterland tracts. IWP80(IWE80) = 1980 total population (employment) of the tracts within 30 miles spatial distance from the ith tract, which include the observation in the ith tract. W is the spatial weight matrix defined by the 30 miles spatial distance between tracts, and {wij} is 1 if tract j is within 30 miles distance from tract i. IWP8090(?IWE8090)= Changes from 1980 to 1990 in total population (employment) of the tracts within 30 miles spatial distance from the ith tract ( include the observation in the ith tract), predicted from the first-stage of the 2SLS method. Local amenities: DIST = the spati