商业和经济预测.ppt

Business and Economic ForecastingChapter 5 Why Forecast Demand? Both public and private enterprises operate under conditions of uncertainty. Management wishes to limit this uncertainty by predicting changes in cost, price, sales, and interest rates. Accurate forecasting can help develop strategies to promote profitable trends and to avoid unprofitable ones. A forecast is a prediction concerning the future. Good forecasting will reduce, but not eliminate, the uncertainty that all managers feel. Hierarchy of Forecasting The selection of forecasting techniques depends in part on the level of economic aggregation involved. The hierarchy of forecasting is: National Economy (GDP, interest rates, inflation, etc.) sectors of the economy (durable goods) industry forecasts (automobile manufacturers) firm forecasts ( Ford Motor Company ) Forecasting Criteria The choice of a particular forecasting method depends on several criteria: costs of the forecasting method compared with its gains complexity of the relationships among variables time period involved accuracy needed in forecast the lead time between receiving information and the decision to be made Significance of Forecasting The accuracy of a forecasting model is measured by how close the actual variable, Y, ends up to the forecasting variable, Y. Forecast error is the difference. (Y - Y) Models differ in accuracy, which is often based on the square root of the average squared forecast error over a series of N forecasts and actual figures Called a root mean square error, RMSE. RMSE = ?{ ? (Y - Y)2 / N } Qualitative Forecasting  Flexibility -- easily altered as economy changes Early Signals -- can catch changes and anomalies in data Complex -- hard to keep track of interactions in the primary variables Lack of Tests for Accuracy -- can’t easily test the accuracy in prior periods. Quantitative Forecasting and the Use of Models  Advantages Organize relationships Behavioral relationships Tests o