那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“大回转”太迟了么？.pdfVIP

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那提西银行-全球-经济理论-“大回转”太迟了么？.pdf

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Flash Economics Too late for the “great rotation”? 19 January 2018 - 84 The “great rotation” takes place when investors switch their portfolios from bonds to equities. Great rotations usually occur in the middle of expansion periods, when long-term interest rates start to rise (expected returns on bonds then become low or negative) and the growth outlook remains upbeat, which justifies buying equities even though long-term interest rates are rising. There were great rotations in the past in the United States in 1998-99 and 2004-2007, and in the euro zone in 1998-2000, 2006-2007 and in early 2008. But is it now too late for there to be a great rotation? Due to persistently expansionary monetary policies, long-term interest rates are rising only late in the expansion period at a time when the growth slowdown is imminent, so it is not the right time to be buying equities. Unlike what was observed in the past, investors should probably steer clear of buying both equities and bonds at present in