CRU 全球锌行业研究报告 2010-4.pdfVIP

April 2010 Lingering page 3 Having become accustomed to ignoring zinc’s weak fundamentals, LME quotations have continued to respond to the same short-term economic developments that are influencing the wider metal markets. Believing that the chances of a second Western downturn have lessened, the market is now focussed on the ability of Chinese policymakers to engineer a soft landing. Global surplus is set to expand as supply grows further ahead of demand. Production news page 7 Battle for CBH continues ● San Cristobal suffers a blockade ● Farallon raises its expansion hopes ● Rajpura Dariba smelter commissioned ● Harima ISF conducts maintenance ● ZincOx’s direction to be questioned ● Caribou’s future in doubt ● Nyrstar lifts its stake in Ironbark ● Perkoa JV is delayed Focus: US recovery holds up page 10 Fears of a double-dip recession have not entirely abated. However, the recoveries in the US PMI and IP have matched the ferocity of the pick-up following the recession of the mid-1970s. If this can serve as a guide, the risk of a second slowdown as experienced in the early 1980s has passed. 2010 CRU International Limited confidential 2 Zinc (April) World and Regional Zinc Supply-Demand Balances ’000 tonnes 2 0 0 9 % Change 2 0 1 0 % Change Q1 e Q2 e Q3 e Q4 e Year e 2008-09 Q1 e Q2 f Q3 f Q4 f Year f 2009-10 World Position World Production 2,543 2,747 2,895 3,155 11,340 (2.4) 2,990 3,245 3,175 3,215 12,625 11.3 + US Stockpile Sales - - -