近二十年国内外甜樱桃产业发展动态及对未来的预测_黄贞光.docx

网络出版时间：2014-03-13 14:00网络出版地址：/kcms/detail/41.1308.S1400.004.html/kcms/detail/41.1308.S1400.004.html樱桃专刊近二十年国内外甜樱桃产业发展动态及对未来的预测黄贞光*，刘聪利，李明，赵改荣，李玉红（中国农业科学院郑州果树研究所，郑州 450009）摘 要：本文分析了国内外近 20 年甜樱桃产业发展动态和人均占有量。由于种植效益高推动了世界 甜樱桃种植业的持续发展。我国甜樱桃种植业虽然起步较晚，但近 10 年高速发展，2013 年我国甜樱 桃栽培面积已超过 130000 hm2，居世界首位。今后一段时间我国甜樱桃种植业将有更快的发展。预 测我国 2025 年甜樱桃栽培面积将达 200000 hm2～213300 hm2，产量达 103.98 万 t～121.31 万 t。届时 我国人均甜樱桃占有量还不足 1 kg，应不会出现生产过剩。关键词: 甜樱桃；发展形势；预测The development situation of sweet cherry industry in the World and China during recent two decates and prognostication for the development until twelve years later in ChinaHUANGZhen-guang*, LIU Cong-li , LI Ming , ZHAO Gai-rong , LI Yu-hong (Zhengzhou Fruit Research Institute, CAAS, Zhengzhou, 450009 China)Abstract: This paper analyses the development situation of sweet cherry industry for the World and China , and average consumption per capita in the World. Because of the high income for sweet cherry industry, the industry has been developing continuously for two decates in the World. Despite the sweet cherry industry of China started later than other countries, the industry of China is developing rapidly than other countries recent years. And the plantation area of thecrop of China was more than 130000 hm2 in 2013, which was the largest in the World. Weprognosticate that in 2025 the plantation area of sweet cherry of China would be 200000 hm2～ 213300 hm2, produce quantity would be 1039800 t～1213100 t. At that time, each Chinese people would consumpt sweet cherry less than 1kg, so that sweet cherry would not over production in China.Key words：sweet cherry; development situation; prognostication二十多年来甜樱桃种植业被世界各栽培国称为“黄金种植业”，栽培面积和总产量稳定 增长。2011 年世界甜樱桃栽培面积和产量达到 380674.4 hm2 和 2240491t。我国甜樱桃种植 业起步较晚，而近 5 年国内种植甜樱桃的热情空前高涨，每年新栽樱桃面积达到 10 万 666.7m2。目前国内受到种植甜樱桃高效益驱动的政府官员、农民和企业家都计划扩大甜樱 桃种植规模，在他们做出实际行动之前都会提出一个问题：我国甜樱桃种植业这样发展下 去，什么时候会出现过剩？本文试图通过对国内外近 20 年甜樱桃产业发展速度和人均消费量的分析，预测 2025 年我国甜樱桃的产业规模和人均消费量，回答届时甜樱桃是否会出现 过剩的问题。1 世界甜樱桃生产与贸易1.