气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析.pdfVIP

中国农业气象（Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ） 2017 年 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.06.001 谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6): 333-341 气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析*1 谭凯炎，邬定荣，赵花荣 （中国气象科学研究院，北京 100081 ） 摘要：利用华北平原 42 个农业气象观测站 1981-2010 年逐日平均气温和冬小麦发育期观测资料，结合增温 试验数据，统计分析冬小麦生长季各月平均气温的变化特征、冬小麦关键发育日期和各主要生育阶段平均气 温的变化趋势，以探究气候变暖对华北平原冬小麦生育过程温度条件的影响。结果表明：研究期内华北平原 冬小麦生长季的 10 月、12 月和 2-6 月增温趋势显著，2 月平均气温上升线性倾向率最大。气候变暖使冬小 麦越冬阶段和返青-拔节阶段的平均温度显著升高，从而导致冬小麦拔节-成熟日期显著提前，但冬小麦冬前 生长阶段和拔节-成熟阶段的平均温度则未呈现上升趋势。冬小麦冬前生长阶段的温度环境因播种期适应性 推迟而保持基本稳定，拔节-成熟阶段平均温度变化不明显则归因于发育期前移和当地气温的季节性变化特 点。气候进一步变暖将使冬小麦冬后发育期提前更多，而拔节-成熟阶段的平均温度则不会明显升高。 关键词：气候变暖；增温；冬小麦；发育期；气象条件；华北平原 Trend Analysis of Temperature Conditions over Different Growth Periods of Winter Wheat under Climate Warming in North China Plain TAN Kai-yan, WU Ding-rong, ZHAO Hua-rong (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract: In order to understand the effects of warming on temperature conditions during various growing periods of winter wheat, the changes of monthly averaged temperature and the changing trends of the dates of critical developmental stages and averaged temperatures during the growing periods of winter wheat in North China Plain were analyzed based on the meteorological and phonological data collected from agrometeorological observation stations from 1981 to 2010 and warming experiments in the region. The results showed that there was a significant warming trend in October, December and between February and June during the growing season in the Plain. Furthermore, the average temperature in February exhibited the maximum linear ten