计量经济学论文国内旅游发展状况计量分析.doc

国内旅游发展状况的计量分析 摘要 旅游业一直被誉为“朝阳经济”、“无烟工业”，它作为一个具有巨大发展潜力的产业群体，在国民经济中的地位日显重要，经济影响越来越被各国政府所重视，成为推动社会经济发展的重要因素。大力发展旅游业尤其是国内旅游业，符合当前经济发展形势的需要和中央的方针政策，有利于满足广大人民群众精神和物质需要，有利于拉动国民经济的发展；在当前经济形势比较严峻，内需不足、外需不振的情况下，发展国内旅游业，对于扩内需、调结构、促增长具有重要的经济意义。因此，定量研究中国国内旅游业发展情况、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系及国内旅游业发展对经济增长的贡献，不仅具有重要的理论价值，还具有非常重要的现实意义。本文在占有大量国内外相关文献的基础上，以中国国内旅游业作为研究对象，以相关年鉴中的数据为基础，以经济学、统计学、旅游学理论为指导，以Eviews计量经济研究方法及其他相关定量分析方法，深入分析1994-2010年间中国国内旅游业的发展情况，全面研究国内旅游业的季节特征、国内旅游业发展与经济增长的关系。 关键词：国内旅游业；计量分析；EViews模型；季节特征；可变参数模型 SUMMARY Tourism has been hailed as sunrise economy， smokeless industry， which as an industry group has tremendous potential for development in the national economy increasingly important role， the economic impact is increasingly being valued by governments， to become an important factor in promoting social and economic development. To develop tourism， especially domestic tourism， in line with current economic development needs of the situation and the central principles and policies conducive to satisfy the peoples spiritual and material needs， help stimulate the development of the national economy; more severe in the current economic situation， domestic demand insufficient， the case of weak external demand， the development of domestic tourism， for expanding domestic demand， adjusting structure， promoting the growth of great economic significance. Therefore， quantitative study of Chinese domestic tourism development， the contribution of domestic relations and the development of domestic tourism development of tourism and economic growth to economic growth， not only has important theoretical value， but also has a very important practical significance. In this paper， a lot of possession on the basis of relevant literature to Chinese domestic tourism as the research object， the data related to yearbook based， economics， statistics， tourism theory as a guide to Eviews economic research and measurement methods other relevant quantitative analysis， in-depth analysis of 1994-2010 ye